Low VIX is not a sell signal

Today the VIX has traded below 13.  I have read many comments on Twitter in the past about how a low VIX is bearish and evidences complacency.  As always, I have no clue where the market is going next, but based on history a low VIX reading suggests that we should be prepared for a greater possibility of higher prices with less risk of drawdowns over the next 5-6 months.

As shown in the table below, the lower the VIX the greater the historical probability of SPY trading higher in 100 days. Also, the average winner/average loser has been higher and the average drawdown has been lower.

If you are short and basing that decision on a low VIX, you may want to reconsider.

VIX Table